Gamblers have put nearly $900,000 of bets on the “Trump in jail before election day?” market, which is on the application for predictions Polymarket.
- The crypto punters on Polymarket offer Donald Trump a 14% chance of being in prison before Election Day in an election in November of the U.S. presidential election.
- The bet market has seen $900,000 of bets from crypto-savvy users since its inception at the beginning of January.
Crypto punters are predicting Donald Trump has a 14% chance of being imprisoned ahead of the elections. U.S. presidential election in November. The odds on predictions applications Polymarket shows.
Trump has been found to be guilty by the New York jury on all 34 charges. The jury found him guilty of faking business records, and he was the first ex-president to be found guilty by U.S. courts. Trump has pleaded not guilty and vowed to “keep fighting until the end,” according to the BBC.
The data shows that a marketplace that is based on “Trump in jail before election day?” has seen an improvement in selling and buying transactions during the day on Friday. The market was launched in January and has already racked up more than $900,000 of bets from cryptocurrency users.
The market will say “Yes” if Trump spends at minimum 48 consecutive hours in the custody of a prison or jail from Jan. 5 until 11:59 p.m. ET on Nov. 5. In the event that it is not, it changes to “No.”
In the early morning hours in Europe, the chances are that “Yes” sells at 17 cents while those of “No” sell at 85 cents. If it is over with the right outcome, it would be $1. (The total might not reach 100 at Polymarket because of market uncertainty and other price-related factors.)
Reuters reported that the odds of Trump being in jail prior to the election remain low.
In the Polymarket “Presidential Election Winner 2024” market, the probability of Trump being president fell by two percentage points to 54 percent on Thursday. Biden’s odds of becoming president increased by 40%, up from 38 percent.
